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A little bit of history before we begin. According to a study done by Bleacher Report's Amy Daughters (link at the bottom), since 1997, more than 80 schools have changed conferences, several of them more than once. In that span, there have only been 3 years where no realignment has occurred at the FBS level (2006, 2009, & 2010).
Last year, the University of Maryland departed the Atlantc Coast Conference (ACC) to join the Big Ten, leaving the door open for Big East/American Athletic Conference (AAC) member University of Louisville to join the ACC. Joining Maryland in the Big Ten was another Big East/AAC member Rutgers University. Former Conference-USA members Tulane, East Carolina, & Tulsa joined the AAC (thus created Conference USA Deux; sounds better than Conference USA Two), and Conference USA added former Mid-American Conference (MAC) member Western Kenucky & FCS school Old Dominion. The Sun Belt added 4 members, former members & former Western Athletic Conference members New Mexico State & Idaho (football only) as well as FCS powerhouses Georgia Southern & Appalachian State. In 2015, Charlotte will be joining Conference USA & the U.S. Naval Academy will join the AAC.
As of now, those are the remaining FBS conference changes, with no future movement in 2016. However, with the Big XII in the market for 2 new schools, this will lead to another shift in the college football landscape. Let's take a look at some of the schools linked to possible expansion with the Big XII:
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Brigham Young University (BYU): The former Mountain West Conference member now Independent has a rich football tradition that includes the 1984 National Championship & alumni such as Steve Young & Jim McMahon. In addition, the Cougars (who went 8-4 & a bowl appearance) can join immediately & add good competition to the conference.
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Boise State University: Going deeper into Pacific-12 Conference country, this Idaho based school has become the darling of college football, as they have slowly risen to become a football powerhouse. Even with the loss of long-time coach Chris Petersen to Washington, the Broncos went 11-2 (losses to Ole Miss & Air Force) and then a victory over #10 Arizona in the Fiesta Bowl. The rising program would stretch the span of the conference (much like West Virginia did to an extent), but add a rising football program.
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University of Cincinnati: Currently in the American Athletic Conference, the Bearcats have been a consistent contender in the conference, with its stiffest competition coming from former members Louiville & Rutgers, & current member & 2013 Fiesta Bowl Winners University of Central Florida. The Bearcats went 9-4 overall, which includes a loss to Virginia Tech in the Military Bowl. This addition makes more geographic sense in comparison to BYU & Boise State, and the Cats could give the Big XII a reach that extends into Big Ten country.
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University of Memphis: A fast-rising program from the AAC that finished 10-3 (including a win over BYU in the Miami Beach Bowl; losses to UCLA, Ole Miss, & Houston) last season, and looks to build off one of its best seasons yet. As you might guess from that last statement, Memphis does not have a rich football program, but it makes geographic sense & its location & upward trend make it a potential candidate.
Florida St. (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/b/b5/FSU_Seminoles_logo.png)
UNC (http://www.unc.edu/files/2012/06/ccm1_032685.jpg)
Louisville (http://content.sportslogos.net/logos/32/734/full/2515.gif)
Florida State/North Carolina/Louisville: Forget about 'em. ACC Commissioner John Swofford was able to reach an agreement with all member schools on a media rights deal that lasts until 2027, meaning that the ACC would have control of a school's media rights for 10+ years. Florida State is in a very comfortable position in the ACC facing the likes of Clemson & Louisville in its division & Georgia Tech & Virginia Tech in the other. UNC might be a gamble with potential academic issues, plus its basketball is in a very good shape in the ACC. Louisville is worth mentioning because at one point, Louisville was set to join the Big XII. However, the Big XII passed on Louisville & chose West Virginia. Now in the ACC, Card Nation is finding a great home & currently has no desire to move. The only appeal for Cards fans might be the chance to play former coach Charlie Strong (Texas) every year, but aside from that, the Cards are in a very good shape in the ACC.
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University of Houston: Going back to Southwest Conference roots, Houston would be the 6th school to join the Big XII if the conference so chooses them. In addition to its roots with several current members, Houston has had several notable alums including 1989 Heisman Winner Andre Ware & NCAA All-Time Leading Passer Case Keenum. The Cougars have come off back-to-back 8-5 seasons (win over Pitt in the Armed Forces Bowl) in the American Athletic Conference, and with former Ohio State offensive coordinator Tom Herman as head coach, the Cougars could provide the conference another offensive spark team. ESPN has Houston as a potential option 5 years down the road. (Trotter, "Big 12 Expansion is not just a possibility, but an inevitability", http://espn.go.com/blog/big12/post/_/id/100511/big-12-expansion-no-longer-an-if-but-rather-a-when)
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Southern Methodist University (SMU): Long shot, but would be a fun storyline. With alum & Hall of Famer Eric Dickerson's most recent comments of the program after June Jones's departure (http://espn.go.com/dallas/college-football/story/_/id/11498886/eric-dickerson-laments-downfall-smu-mustangs-football-program) coupled with the bitter demise of UAB football (#FREEUAB), it would be great to see the Mustangs regain relevancy (1-11 last year in the AAC), and do so by facing off against long-time rivals.
BOLD PREDICTION: BYU, Houston
BYU provides great competition immediately, & Tom Herman's arrival + the ties Houston has to current members add good overall value.
Conference Layout
NORTH DIVISION: Baylor, BYU, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, West Virginia
SOUTH DIVISION: Houston, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech, TCU
Close Second: Cincinnati. The Bearcats' consistent play & location make it a good addition to the conference.
AFTERMATH:
With Houston (or Cincinnati) departing, the American Athletic Conference could look to add another program. The most appealing choice would be Marshall, another C-USA member who finished an impressive 13-1 overall record (including a blow-out of MAC member Northern Illinois in the Boca Raton Bowl) thanks to senior QB Rakeem Cato. That & famous alums Chad Pennington & Randy Moss give it addition appeal, but my bold prediction is that the conference hangs on to its top school. Reunion with Villanova? Probably not. Instead, they take a gamble on....
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Appalachian State!
Leap of faith huh? Well how about a little "breaking the foodchain" move by plucking a school from Conference USA's "garden" AKA the Sun Belt. While the Mountaineers may not have the rich tradition that other schools have, their competitiveness (3rd in Sun Belt but bowl ineligible due to shift from FCS to FBS) & relative geography (Boone, NC) make it a good choice. And with a pending move into the AAC & a couple years of quality football, the Mountaineers make it to the Orange Bowl to face... a rising Michigan squad with Jim Harbaugh. Who wouldn't love a story like that?
This move leaves the Sun Belt pondering another option or two to replace the Mountainners. The most logical choice would be James Madison.
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With good facilities & competiveness in every sport, the Dukes would be a fantastic addition to the Sun Belt. However, the more stable Mid-American Conference (who only lost Western Kentucky during the most recent shift in conference alignment) offers them & another school (Delaware or Villanova anyone?) to create a 14-school conference.
With this, the Sun Belt decides to go with a popular choice by diving into Big South territory & choosing America's Largest Christian University - Liberty University, also known as Jerry Falwell World.
Liberty (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:LibertyFlames.png)
Coastal Carolina (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coastal_Carolina_Chanticleers#mediaviewer/File:CoastalCarolinaChanticleers.png)
After defeating then FCS #1 & arch rival Coastal Carolina to clinch its 1st FCS Playoff Birth & after demonstrating the ability to compete with schools such as CC, James Madison (Liberty's first win in the FCS Championship Playoff), & Appalachian State (who Liberty defeated in the regular season), the Flames earn a bid to join the Sun Belt. In addition, the conference decides to add Coastal Carolina too. After all, the Sun Belt has become THE conference of neighborhood rivalries. Think about it:
Georgia State -> Georgia Southern
Arkansas State -> Arkansas-Little Rock
Louisiana-Lafayette -> Louisiana-Monroe
South Alabama -> Troy
Texas State -> Texas-Arlington
New Mexico State -> Idaho
Well okay that last one is a bit of a stretch... but you get the point.
And thus concludes another round of conference realignment! Will it ever stop? Who knows! Regardless, it's a great time to be a college football fan!
Thank you for reading! My name is ZEZ, & I look forward to sharing more awesome sport-related articles in the future!
Other Sources Not Listed:
Amy Daughters's Article: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2115606-a-timeline-of-college-football-conference-realignment-over-the-bcs-era
http://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2013/11/30/football-conferences/?ref=ncaafootball
http://www.hustlebelt.com/2014/4/2/5539778/mac-mid-american-conference-expansion-options
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